Friday, August 18, 2006

There goes week one

Despite the doping scandal involving Tour de France winner Floyd Landis and other negative publicity in recent months, Phonak’s sales have hit record levels. (link)
This makes one whole week that I've been doing this as a roundup. I hope folks have been finding it useful - It's been way more traumatic than I had any idea it might be, and I have no idea how difficult this is for Amber, Floyd, David Witt's other family and friends, and the Phonak team.

It's boggling.

If you have any complaints or suggestions, please drop a comment.

-TBV

Marion Jones "A" Sample Positive for EPO, quotes AP. As with Gatlin, I'll mention it once and leave it alone.
Free Floyd T-Shirts, profits promised to Floyd Foundation.
Get mad Floyd, advises long open letter at RunnersWeb
Call me for advice, says Richard "Get Rich" Quick.
You Buried Win, Gave Scandal Page One, complains letter.
Floyd only one who thinks he's innocent, writes a blogger
Another pointer to the petition, and another.
Sunday full Ligget interview on YouTube, understands most defense points. Second lab should be used on B sample. Cycling is eating itself. Partly Transcribed at BikingBis
All athletes are doped, says blogger.
Give Floyd some brownies today, writes blogger.
Neutral rundown at this blog, Aug 14.
The Filmmaker? It matters to us, but others...
Another blog, skeptical.
Shot through the heart, declares blogger.
Puzzling Evidence, says Coach Levy.
Challenging CIR is legal trouble, PR disaster, thinks Fine, a reasoned view from one who has done good digging earlier.

Phonak Says, "Goodbye," in it's August Newsletter (pdf).

Letters and more Letters to CyclingNews; constructive, pounding Pound; trusting nobody; testosterone and agression; giving up on pros; there's a child molester in the peloton; life ban for first offense.

"There is power in a Union", feature on rider organization. It argues against sponsorship and for the old national team format, being essentially whistful for the Good Old Days before Commercial Interests Took Over. It isn't as much about riders really organizing as you might have thought. The NFLPA and MLBPA demonstrate stronger unions in sport. And the NHLPA, I suppose.

For young-uns,
There is power in a Union is an anthem of the labor movement, by Joe Hill, set to the music of a well-known Christian hymn. (He's often remembered only as the subject of "Joe Hill" as performed by Joan Baez at Woodstock). Another song of the same name is by Billy Bragg, which rolls out of the mouth more easily these days.

Letters at VeloNews. Too Broad a Brush; He's caught; McQuaid talks out of both sides; Truth is out there, man;

McQuaid speaks to VeloNews.

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Thursday, August 17, 2006

Please be a quiet day

There was about as much coverage today of David Witt as there had been on Weds/Tues of the Phonak shutdown announcement. This too seemed in-line with the curse that has followed previous attempts to make the defense case. I'd say that Floyd's open letter was largely displaced in volume by the Witt tragedy, and Jacobs' demand for an open hearing was completely lost in the noise. The timing of the open letter was fine -- ordinarily it would have dominated the Weds news cycle. The Jacobs announcement seemed particularly badly timed, competing both against the open letter and Witt. It would not hurt to re-launch that later.

On the other hand, and I may be wrong, the main wave of "string him up" reactions may have passed, and more support is emerging from hiding.

Petition to investigate lab, referred by BikeBiz
Part 2 of excellent process series from VeloNews.
Coverage of open hearing demand at Podium Cafe.
Interview w/Witt friend Dwight van Slyke in video KUSI story. Says that Floyd went to the hospital Tuesday night. That had to be awful.
Witt reported in Australia, slightly different take.
AP story passed along, with comments at Huffington Post

Defense of the LNDD Lab, from Usenet.
PR evaluation, from Micro Persuasion
Numbers Lie: How the Media Failed, from Rant your head off.
Floyd's Goose is Cooked, Alabama pundit hates to say.
Yay! Doping Litigation Season Starting! notes Bicyling's Boulder Report, taking a dim view of the demonization of Floyd, without expressing opinion on the merits.
Any coverage is too much, says ESPN guy (ref'd by Boulder); who cares about biking and track?
Fall dismays us all, Floyd is Icarus: North County Times
Long meander about saving TdF on USENET it.sport.ciclismo
You like my socks? by John Spivey at blogcritics, August 6th.
Transcript of NPR interview, via Off Wing
Attempted refutation of Eustice's IHT piece
Another report on on Chicago Vision Quest appearance.
Why the rush to find guilt? asks a sports blogger.
Landis allowed cycling to dethrone god, says this blogger.
Defense scenario in rotten tea blog.
Blame it on Terrorists, riffs Richard "Get Rich" Quick.
It's sporting to use drugs, says AA Gill in the Sunday (Aug 13) Times.
video: The Colbert Report weighs in the large ones. (old)
Tests are Dependable; UPI passes on expert assertions.
Taking the Dr. Evil, er, Ferrari view: Bode Miller, well known role model

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Wednesday, August 16, 2006

Dumbstruck.

From here,

Floyd Landis' Father-In-Law Found Dead in North Park
The father-in-law of Floyd Landis is dead, from an apparent self-inflicted gun shot wound. David Witt was found slumped over in his car in a parking garage in North Park Wednesday. He was 57 years-old.

Witt lived in La Mesa and owned a restaurant in North Park named Hawthorns, where a lot of cycling memorabilia adorned the walls, much of it having to do with Landis.

Landis and Witt were best friends. They raced together, they were best men at each others weddings, and Witt introduced Landis to his step-daughter Amber, whom Landis went on to marry.

This sad news comes just days after the cycling team Landis was on announced they'd be shutting down at the end of the season. Phonak owner Andy Rihs said that he has been unable to find a buyer for his team since Landis, this year's Tour de France champion, was busted for doping.

Story Created: Aug 16, 2006 at 9:35 AM PST
Story Updated: Aug 16, 2006 at 10:47 AM PST

A later report says this was discovered on Tuesday afternoon.

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A Black Day

floyd landis, floyd, landis, wada, doping
I've withdrawn the QoD. I'm just shocked by the news about David Witt. My deepest condolences to his family and friends. This is just so sad.

 By volume, there has been lots of dispersion of the Phonak demise, and not much at all of Floyd's letter in the mainstream media. That might change today, as the letter came afterwards.

Floyd wants open, public hearing. December maybe?, Jacobs tells ESPN
What if He's Innocent? Eustice in IHT believes so.
Letters to VeloNews
Lance right about Football and Floyd, says KC columnist
I don't believe he doped, says teammate Koos
Team seemed cursed, says teammate Bert in CyclingNews
For two years, we've been robust, says Lelangue (eurosport video)
Still wants to believe him, says Ligget (video, audio) via BikeBiz.
"Someone took $R-2,000,000 out of his hand and burned it", sez teammate Hunter's manager; Hunter still believes Floyd was clean.
Rider Market has just been flooded, groans teammate Hunter.
Classy Letter, On/Off Comments dischord, by Spinopsys
Rihs playing victim, comment cherry-picking is lame, bitches the biking hub.
Phonak was too good at anti-doping discussed on Usenet
What is Truth? from the Balimore Sun, via Common Dreams.
Other teams Throw Phonak, Astana under the bus, Podium Cafe.
More on demise from NYT
Excellent Testosterone/Floyd research, from Tom Fine
Lim, Ventura, Baker, said to believe Floyd clean.
"I thought I heard...", no you didn't.

David Witt Information

First, unverified report I'd hoped was a nasty rumour...
Seemingly verified report, from KUSI news
More detailed report from SignonSanDiego
More from CyclingNews, rehash in VeloNews
MSM: AP report carried in USA Today and Forbes.
Reuters, via the Guardian; additional details.
tdfblog,

Story from Jul 29th
Cyclo Vets minutes from July 31, hoping to work with Floyd Foundation.
Review of the new Hawthorn's, seems current.
Another review, from August 3rd - "very good"
Hawthorn's on Citysearch
Restaurant real-estate news, from 2005
More old restaurant news

Cyclo Vets article about Floyd, Witt, Baker, on Page 4.
Community Development Director of La Mesa?
2000 Sea Otter, Witt 19th in 45+

Happy Now?, anger on Usenet

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Tuesday, August 15, 2006

Shortlived

Comments on the official site are turned off again. I was just about to post, "Go Apeshit on 'em!", when the form vanished. While I have no foundation for speculation, I will anyway. They could have

  • Gotten all they wanted
  • Been swamped with trash
  • Conducted an experiment to see what they'd get.
  • Been on a schedule and gone to bed.
  • Decided to wait for the results of the discussion here :-)
Let's see tomorrow.
[update: still off at 8:40am PT]

[Update: "Witt was found dead in his car Tuesday afternoon in a North Park parking garage, according to his friends."

I wouldn't want to read stupid blog posts either
.]

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FloydLandis.com taking comments again

The Floyd Official Site is taking comments as noted below, and is publishing at least some of them. That is, all the ones I just looked at were warm and supportive. While it may be a self-selected audience, it does suggest that there is moderation going on. So far, no critical comments have made it through the moderation if there have been any. It would probably be unwise to be completely unmoderated, and it is his site. Still, I expect somebody has to read everything that comes in anyway.

Would it make sense to have some policy that would display reasoned negative comments, and let the BBS take them on? If it were me, I might try a moderation policy that allowed civil criticism from people with verifiable mail addresses. This is the sort of thing that is suggested in the PR advice I found yesterday.

What does anybody else think? Allow negative comments or not?




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Some open questions, part 1

Relevant to the factual defense

  1. Were IRMS/CIR tests done on any of his other samples?
  2. Are any of his other samples still available for further testing?
  3. If available, could those samples be tested at another lab?
  4. Does Floyd have all the quantitative results of the A and B yet?
  5. Does Floyd have quantitative results for any other samples?
  6. Does the WADA protocol for the T/E test follow the long period monitoring advocated in the literature?
  7. What are the false positive rates for the T/E tests and the CIR test?
It seems, um, ironic that safeguards that are supposed to protect the rider - destruction of samples that after negative results - could turn out to hinder a defense by making it impossible to compare before and after negatives with a potentially fluke positive.

Similarly, anyone who says that the tests are foolproof is posturing.

Relevant to PR and transparency:
  1. Are the A/B sample reports translated yet?
  2. Can Floyd post them on his web site, in either raw or translated form?

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I've tested positive on the isotope test

QUOTE OF THE DAY
I've tested positive on the isotope test. Twice. And I didn't dope. On [the] second test, I had to pay out of my own pocket. link
Floyd's Open Letter to Phonak Team,
Unclear if it's pre or/post-announcement - it doesn't address the team shutdown directly. He will fight to show the win was valid and restore the image of cycling. Well crafted except for a clunker "just" that could have been deleted. The PR advice may be getting better - notably, this new blog entry has enabled the comments feature, which had been turned off at the site when everything blew up.
Phonak Team f0lds,
Official, also IHT, AP, AFP, CyclingNews, Velonews, Reuters, Pez, Eurosport
"I feel bad for him too", says Andy Rihs in this interview.
iShares says no sponsorship, at UKBikeBiz, nothing yet on the site.
No iShares in cycling, at the bottom of this Telegraph roundup.
Axel frustrated, wants to continue, badly translated here.
Innocent or Stupid, allows St. Pete Times
Floyd, DZ at Robbie's, from CyclingNews
Support Floyd on the guestbook at SupportFloyd
Winning at all costs, minor Floyd/Gatlin dig, from ESPN
Mixed Feelings in Murrieta, in the Press-Enterprise
Disconcerting Dodge, says Hartford Courant
Last Night's Dinner affects C13, WADA's own Research (finder)
More on CIR, from Corante
Unranking Floyd is Wrong, shows bias, says Cycling4all.
Floyd pre-05 article, from BikeCulture (pdf)
Oh, that Pound, says Sally Jenkins in 2005 (source)

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Monday, August 14, 2006

I have visions of Wile E. Coyote

QUOTE OF THE DAY

I have visions of Wile E. Coyote using an Acme testosterone rocket to chase down the Road Runner. link
Bob Roll interview, audio from KCPW; thinks sample mishandled.
Claim by a Victim of False Positive CIR, on Usenet.
iShares, Floyd, Ochowicz, USA Cycling conflicts, raised on Usenet.
Citizen Pound sharing advice, in the Ottawa Citizen, cited below
Pound pounding, Julich lamenting, in CyclingNews.
Testosterone & Psychological Advantage, from The Times (UK).
More about T-testing etc., Oxford Cycling chat.
Floyd, Amber, DZ appearance at Robbie's, from Bicycling bbs.
Intercourse it all, on Bicycling bbs.
I Can't Count, consultant thinks A/B samples are two tests.
Please Confess, opinion in Floyd's local paper.
Old News about Lab, and WADA, Vrijman report from the UCI
A lot I'd agree with, in this blog, now part of the echo chamber.
Another big link/summary thread, at Free Republic.
Letters at VeloNews
Pointed Interview with Phamacologist, at Pez.
What Floyd was hinting, on Podium Cafe; first I'd seen it.
FloydLandis.com closed to comments, good PR discussion.
More Floyd.com PR discussion, on Spinopsys
Old stuff, from EducatedGuesswork, for completeness.
Lance having it both ways AND blaming media, opines FynalCut
Statistical Illiteracy, from Knowledge Problem on July 30.
A video montage from Bambi Francisco
Some more science discussion, from a medical student.

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Sunday, August 13, 2006

The UCI can't let him win

QUOTE OF THE DAY

The UCI can't let him win as that would cast doubt on the whole testing process, so expect a smear campaign to be launched both in the press and behind the scenes as this will a fight for the life of the UCI and WADA, which are bigger than Landis. At best, that is he is clean, he will be a casualty of fixing the anti-doping (after the fact, that is) machine. (link)
Questioning the Isotope test, on Usenet, also this.
Fanning flames near the libelous border on StolenUnderground
I'm a Scientist, and skeptical, at WedMD (Aug 9).
Bummed, puzzles Bobby Julich carefully, and at length (also)
On "Today", video from last week.
Wants to believe, blog w/rare image in Postal livery.
Does believe, another blog.
Cycling and Prisoners Dilemma, about Lance, from 2005.
WBUR talk show on Testosterone, Murphy of SI crushed (45min)
Leak theory, from BBC chat
Defending editorial, from Hibbing MN
Status Summary from Sam Abt at the IHT; neutral.
He's Guilty Scenario, in plausible detail, from weighlifting coach.
The Reporting Sucks and Tests Can Lie, neutral, from Anchorage.
Defending Letter, in San Diego home turf.
Death of Truth, in SF Op-Ed piece.
He's a Witch!, says NY Daily News columnist

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Saturday, August 12, 2006

A PhD is a precursor

QUOTE OF THE DAY

Having a PhD doesn't guarantee a high IQ but it does seem to be a precursor for arrogance. link
"Uh, that's enough talking", says Lance.
In a crisis, don't think aloud, advises a PR guy
Pro-dope, in the Grauniad, of course.
Team Future? Press conference by A Rihs on Tuesday
Posturing, Lashing out by UCI VP Ray Godkin on VeloNews
Diplomatic mumbling by Vanvelde
J'Excuse!, from Missing Saddle on July 28.
Don't Do Dr. Phil, from Kevin Cowherd (Aug 10).
Prisoner's Dilemma, from Wired (reference) lead and comments
Tit for Tat, (prisoner's dilemma), which metaphorically shows why the peloton doesn't fink, and self-disciplines.
Everybody Dopes, says this blog
More backlash to a knee-jerk sports columnist (a trend?)
More grief about Leno, from Christian Science Monitor.
A "Christian" view, casting stones.
Leaping to judgement: Diana Nyad.
Floyd and Boob Jobs, showing there's always an entendre.
We love the drama, so don't ask, don't tell, says The Dartmouth
Yes, I'm an idiot, says columnist, but right to rip Floyd.

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Friday, August 11, 2006

Testosterone is powerful stuff

QUOTE OF THE DAY

Testosterone is powerful stuff, causing outbursts of anger and anxiety in people who have not even taken it. link
Realizing I've become a gas bag, I'm going to limit posts to mostly links for a while, summarizing new/interesting things that I've come across, at most one per-day, growing during the day.

Reaction from Lim, third hand
From Ventura, passed on first hand
Questioning IRMS, testy but true comment
WSJ on the current State, via Usenet/Google Groups; pessimistic.
No choice but to fight, sympathetic recent interview
Ligget, suspicious of process
Letters, bashing a bashing editorial in Dallas
It could be worse, notes someone with a long memory(details).
TV appearances not helping, opines Lancaster
It ain't so, says John Eustice, former rider and commentator
Landis affair sucking the air out of cycling
Lance's Lieutenants on Eurosport.
Comparing sports, from Usenet

Usenet on Floyd, via google groups; informed and inflammatory, with no shortage of trolls.

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Wednesday, August 09, 2006

Process

The way things are supposed to go down is outlined in this outstanding article in VeloNews. What it doesn't explain is what leave an accused really has against the accusers for due process violations. There doesn't yet appear to be a case where impropriety by a federation has done anything for the accused.

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Leno

Floyd was on Leno last night, mostly covered in the regular news stories, for instance Leno Grills Landis. He appeared uncomfortable to me, and grinned with a nervous laugh at some awkward spots, which is probably better than being a deer frozen in some headlights.

I got some things out that weren't in the reports. He's not promising to spend all his money (as did Hamilton) if he concludes the process isn't going to give him a chance. You could read that two ways -- if it's just not fair, or if he sees no defense that will work. He offerered that he might have gotten spiked somehow, but stopped short of claiming that is what happened. Or it might be natural, he isn't sure; and the tests are not as absolutely accurate and reliable as has been presented by their proponents. And, important notice, Maher is not his attorney.

Most interesting, while being pissed off about the leaks and procedural problems, he started to say that he had found people who would testify.... and then Jay talked over him and we didn't hear what it was. Maybe too heavy for Leno to have on the show.

In fact, the whole thing seemed kind of heavy for Leno, and plainly everyone was uncomfortable about it. Not enough jokes.

Still, going out in public and not hiding is a good thing, as long as Floyd can avoid sounding like Mr. Squirming Excuse Making Accused Doper.

As I blurbled in too much length earlier, fixating on the leaks seems like a mistake. Better to stay on the message of "I didn't do it. I'm going to try to prove the tests aren't accurate. If things are stacked so I don't have a chance to make my case, I'll take the suspension. When it's over, I'll try to win again to show people this year wasn't cheating."

If he does conclude he must have gotten spiked (raised earlier), then he's going to have to take the suspension graciously. The ProTour ethics rules are a screw deal here, and there's probably nothing to be done about that but grit teeth and come up with a very long-term training plan with a single goal.

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Tuesday, August 08, 2006

What I'd want

Complaining about the agenda doesn't do anything to counter the facts of the test results, which must be disproven by other evidentiary facts. Finding those facts must be the primary focus.

I believe that complaining about process failures and external agendas is unlikely to affect the outcome of the case that will go through the USADA and the CAS, unless there is proof of tampering, invalid lab procedure, or an incomplete chain of custody.

There isn't a jury, so playing a dirty cop card won't help. Consider some outcomes to the discipine case.

  1. He's found guilty on facts. Complaints about process will make no difference in the outcome. They will make him come off like a criminal who is complaining about the legality of the search. Public opinion will find him guilty. At this point, he can (a) continue to loudly maintain his innocence; (b) really blow the lid and confess everything he'd denied to that point; (c) take his suspension and say nothing more about it. None of these is appealing. Few will believe the protestations of innocence, blowing would be completely out of character, and going omerto will only feed the worst suspicions. It might allow him to ride in a peloton and not end up in the weeds, though.
  2. He comes up with facts to counter the tests, and is found not guilty. This is good. If it is surrounded by complaints about process and persecution, then the victory will be confused with other issues. By deferring complaints about persecution until after a finding of innocence, the victory is clear and attacks on the process can be made without the implication that is is an attempt to hide a guilty conscience.
  3. A procedural flaw is found in the testing that leads to an inability to assess guilt. Floyd is "free on a technicality", but the public believes he did it anyway. For analogy, see the muddy sentiment aroundHamilton's Olympic medal. This is a hollow victory, and to have confused it with the persecution charges won't help the public image.
I'm saying the only good time to loudly complain about Dick's Pounding is after you've been found completely clear on factual grounds. Otherwise you come off like a whimpering cheat.

Floyd's reassesment yesterday was correct. It was a mistake for to be floating possibilities that came off as "Floyd's excuse of the day". Similarly, visibly complaining about the process failures is the same thing -- it comes off as a smokescreen for guilty action.

What you'd want to do about the process failing is maintain an accurate and open timeline of what happened when, with the documents available, without talking about it. When asked, you say, "I'm not talking about that", and stay on point about the facts.

You document (not talk about) on Weds I received this fax at this time, and so and so made this statement at that time; on Monday I sent this fax to this office at this time, with transmission receipt; at this time, that office said they hadn't gotten it. At this date, I was delivered this documentation of the quantitative test results of the A sample. On this data I received the following fax with non-quantitive results of the B sample. On this date I sent this fax requesting the quantitative results of all other samples. On this date I got these quantitative results of the B sample. On this date I received the following commication claiming the dog ate the quantitative results of all other samples. Expose the paper trail without making it the focal point of public statements. It is "establishing a record for appeal", in this case, for the court of public opinion after a win on factual grounds.

Assuming he is as innocent, there is no benefit to his hiding anything. Floyd should give an explicit authorization for the release of all test results, and show the letter being faxed to the appropriate bodies. There can't be anything in any of these records that is more damning than what is already floating around. Be open and direct about the facts.

What I'd like to hear Floyd say is,
"I didn't knowingly take any banned substance over any period. We are still trying to understand these test results you have before you, and compare them to other results I'll also make available as I get them. When we understand, I'll tell you what I think happened, but I'm going to stop guessing out loud. I'll share with you everything we present during the process, and anything the UCI, USADA and the lab allow us to give to you. If they don't want us to show something, we'll tell you what it is and let them explain why they want it hidden. If we do tests to figure out what might have happened, we'll make the results available even if they don't directly help my case.

I don't want to play tactics or be evasive. Everybody needs to know that I don't mess around and play games, and I didn't cheat. I trained legally and hard, and deserved to win.

There is some doping in cycling. I just said it. I'm against it - I win and train clean. I don't respect guys who are dirty, and I like to beat them.

For some people, punishing guys who might have done something wrong is more important than establishing the truth. It's not fun to be on the pointy end of that stick. I respect the goal of having a clean sport, and I'm going to work within the system as best I can to proove my innocence. When it's all over, everyone will be able to see whether the process was fair or not. That won't be up to me to decide.

No matter what happens, I want to come back and win this race again to show people I'm not a fluke or a steroid pumped cheater. I hope it's next year. When I do come back, I want to be tested up the wazoo and show everybody that I'm not on anything illegal. I 've complained before about out of competition tests at home. I don't care now. Every week, every day. I've got a lot to proove to the skeptics, and if that's what it takes, that's what I'll do.

You know I don't just quit. "

And I'd try to lose the "as I said before" and "at this point in time" verbal tics.

If's he's suspended anyway, he has a year to recover from the hip, and three to train seriously for the comeback. That ought to make him one hungry bad ass mofo.

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Monday, August 07, 2006

Stay on target

Floyd is starting to mount a counter-offensive in the media today, with appearances on quite a number of outlets. Much of what he is saying is sensible, but I fear is getting dragged into side issues that will not help the two major issues

  • Understanding what really happened
  • Clearing his name and showing his character.
There are some red herrings in the discussion that ought to have canned answers, with focus directed back to the real issues.
  1. Did it make sense to go on a one-day doping plan? No, it didn't. A real question is whether Floyd was on a long-term doping program that went out of balance on that day to cause a T/E ratio failure. This will need to be addressed as part of understanding what really happened.
  2. Unfairness about the handling of the protocol. Boo Hoo. It's not fair, and complaining gets the athlete nowhere in the process. Floyd was doing better with his no-excuses "I don't expect any sympathy". He needs to beat them even with the unfairness. Even if anyone did care about the fairness, winning an argument based on process rather than the facts of the testing will fail the goal of clearing his name.
  3. Secret Agendas. Yup, somebody is out to get him, but whinging about motivations and methods is pointless until there are counter-facts that address what happened with the chemical results.
The burden of proof is now on Floyd -- he needs to prove that there is something legal that accounts for the results. Everything he knows about process from a lifetime of exposure to the US legal system is irrelevant. He's now presumed guilty by the factual evidence unless he can demonstrably show the evidence is incorrect or misinterpreted. CSI makes the claim that "the evidence doesn't lie." The evidence now says, prima-facie, that he's guilty. That evidence must be shown to be false by alternative evidence demonstrating misinterpretation.

What will help?

Go take a look at groklaw for how an open examination of case and process can be done. Someone collects and publishes all the available documents, and allows commentary. Even when the commentary is biased, the collection of documents shows what is going on. It is also a way of getting the procedural complaints out in the open without taking up air time to whine about them. One posts the released statements with links to what the process should have been, and the conclusions are obvious in the commentary.

If anyone near Floyd is reading, encourage him to post all the documents he's gotten, with no editing or redactions except for names and phone numbers that wouldn't be fair to reveal. The bad guys have all this information already. You might as well let people who'd like to help see what your are up against.

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Saturday, August 05, 2006

Now we know...not much

The B Sample test is done, and the UCI announce, as expected, that it confirms the finding of the A sample. Since we don't know officially about the details of what was found in the A sample, we don't have any more useful data than we had a few days ago when the last of the leaks happened. We also don't have any of the lab data of any of the other 20 tests Landis has done this year, from which to do any interpretatation. This is the data needed to mount a defense.

The immediate effects are that Phonak has cut ties with Floyd, so he needs to fund his defense without a paycheck, the UCI will likely void his TdF results, and it gets referrred to the USADA for processing. This is likely to take 4-6 months at best, but could take longer as we saw with Hamilton.

We can only hope that the defense is better than that offered for Hamilton, where it did not appear that any tests were performed to confirm the alternate theories. Absent hard data, it is difficult to challenge the test methodology or the conclusions that follow. Tyler never ran his own tests to show a chimera, or if he did, the results were bad and got buried. Floyd is going to need to do the tests he's offered, and be open with the results.

There are two goals in play -- the legal appeals, and the public opinion and credibility. To win the appeal but not the image will leave him with a cloud. To lose the appeal while being the direct Floyd folks have know admits the possibility of a welcomed return.

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Wednesday, August 02, 2006

Complaining about the barn door

One of Landis's attorneys is complaining about the leaks out of the UCI. This is probably true, and justified, and is the same sort of ethical lapses the UCI complained about with the Lab/WADA handling of the research that dragged Armstrong around in the muck. Which is to say that there are dirty hands all over the place when it comes to doping and doping investigations.

I don't believe this affects the actual process or eventual outcome of the case. The cow is out already. It does further illustrate the hypocrisy and conflicting agendas all around the doping issue.

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Tuesday, August 01, 2006

More funny facts

More completely reported and discussed on freefloydlandis, the NT times reports that Landis's doctor, Kay, has (a) confirmed an IRMS was done; and (b) He, Kay, thinks it is a marginal positive, being a 3.99 vs. a test limit of 3.00. This might come back negative on the B sample, or be narrow enough to argue about. It also isn't consistent with the 11:1 ratio of the T/E, which might be explainable. This interpretation is probably why Landis was claiming it wasn't (yet, clearly) a doping matter. Not the most transparent way of explaining anything, but he has had bizzarre wording lapses all along, beginning with the TdF interview where he mumbled about parents teaching how to make right choices rather than just denouncing doping.

An earlier NYT report is also my source for the dispute whether Landis's camp ever sent their demand FAX. I suspect that discrepency is going to get lost in the wash, but it illustrates the chasms.

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Suggestions Needed!

The volume of links being carried feels unwieldy. While I think the daily roundup is a good idea, it seems like there ought to be a way of sectioning things up for easier use by someone coming to the site cold, and for me to tell if something is a link I've already used.

Anyone with blogger/blogspot knowledge, or a reference to a decent page that does this, PLEASE send me a pointer to something you think works well that I can think about copying.

thanks!

TBV

[updated: really from Aug 20, but I want to drop it down]

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Some inconsistencies

Yesterday, the B Sample test was scheduled, and even that couldn't be done without confusion and controversy.

  • News reports said the UCI had demanded the test without Landis's letter.
  • Landis spokesman said letter had been faxed to the UCI
  • UCI denied receiving the FAX
  • On Larry King and earlier, Floyd said the FAX was to be sent to the USCF (the US federation), not the UCI, and that he was going to do it on Friday or Saturday.
I did not see the reports from the Landis spokesperson about the fax on Google News until well after the reports of the UCI demand to the lab. The UCI wanted the test started immediately before the lab closes for a scheduled vacation. (As we know, scheduled vacation is sacrosanct in the EU, and even more so in France.)

If the test had not been scheduled on Monday for later in the week, it's possible it might have been delayed for several weeks. If Floyd had sent the FAX on the latest possible day, Wednsday, and the UCI not acted, it might have gotten strung out. No explanation has been given why Floyd's FAX didn't go out as originally indicated, nor has there been clarification whether the UCI received the FAX, nor an explanation of why last week it was to go to the USCF and this week the UCI.

There are also the bombshell reports from back channels that the A sample tested positive for exogenous testosterone. This raises other questions:
  • Is that information in the initial result given to Landis, Phonak, USCF and the UCI?
  • If not, in what result is it present?
  • If so, why didn't the Floyd camp discuss it last week?
As always, it's a cover up that ruins credibility. If the Landis people knew last week, they should have been forthcoming with the ratio and the IRMS findings of the A sample report. If they didn't know, or were only given partial results, then the protocol seems to have been violated. That is, if the UCI received and held onto IRMS results without telling him, they have violated his process rights -- how could he organize his response without knowing?

In the best case, there is no positive IRMS result, and someone has been feeding, garbage to L'Equipe and the NY Times to smear Landis, and he only needs to defend on the T/E ratio.

In the worst case, he knew of the positive IRMS. He lied through his teeth last week both about what he did and what he knew. Then, he tried to delay the B test for another two weeks while dithering with his defense strategy with a dog-ate-my-fax story.

None of the latter seems consistent with what we believe of his historical directness. I'm still holding onto theory A, he's being smeared, but has some testing to do on the T/E ratio.

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Sunday, July 30, 2006

Political underpinnings

Floating in the pool with my wife, we mused that to be soft on doping was like being soft on crime, or being a cut-and-runner in either Vietnam or Iraq -- just not politically possible without some cathartic event. In this blog, a bio-ethicist makes the modest suggestion that a World Pro-Doping Agency be created to make the argument for the other side. Otherwise, all we get to hear is Dick Pound's pontificating.

The moral outrage of the zero tolerance position is clearly as much a political problem as an ethical one. We allow riders to take antibiotics, and spin tales how this isn't performance enhancing -- as if their performance wouldn't be worse if they weren't taking them. Ah, but that is to get back to normal levels, we say. Gatlin's first 'positive' was for a drug he'd been taking since he was nine years old (obviously part of a Ferrari-like plot to raise an army of super-runners), for which no slack or sanity was allowed. Yes, asthma is epidemic, but now 25% of the peloton "has" it and gets waivers for things like albuterol. At the same time, marijuana use is also disallowed in events for which it couldn't possibly be performance enhancing. So, the rationales limit athletes to, well, basically being Christian Scientists, I guess, and that seems easier and clearer than applying intellegence and judgement.

Ray Cipollini writes an amazing piece on the dailypeloton considering some saner options - but they are too rational to be considered politically acceptable.

I'm not going to argue for allowing plainly dangerous practices. Neveretheless, the idea of having some things be acceptable when done under transparent and safe conditions seems worth investigating. It will be opposed by the same folks who are against birth control, abortion, and needle-exchange programs, for the same reasons.

On the other hand, consider the example of rules in NASCAR. These are intended to intentionally restrict innovation and cost escalation. They keep competition relatively even, which is good for the show, and the rules get jiggled to enhance partity often on short notice. Crews traditionally take a creative view of the rules, and when they get caught in violation, sanctions are real, but not draconian. Would it be a better idea to give a lifetime ban to a driver or crew chief on a second career violation? Would that really be good for the sport?

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Unverified: IRMS Found Exogeous A Sample

Cyclingnews passes on reports by L'Equipe that the A sample had synthetic testosterone here, with some discussion on USENET here. Scary arguments are attributed to Jose Maria Buxeda, reported as one of Floyd's attorney about the use of IRMS being "not reliable". That's the first time I've heard anyone make that claim. So far, IRMS has been given as the definitive test to obtain the CIR, and use of either term seems more or less equivalent. If Buxeda is trying to hang hopes on this argument, things are indeed ugly.

We also see L'Equipe is once again receiving unauthorized information transfer, which raises questions about the credibility of the lab (update: or the UCI). One would want to check the chain of custody carefully.

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Did Floyd get an IV after stage 16?

I haven't heard a specific statement one way or another. While there is speculation he did, his own commentary didn't say, and sort of suggested he did not.

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Some new methods of testing

Are reported in this abstract and the related links.

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Aggression, heat and testosterone

It's fairly well established that a symptom of heat-stroke can be aggression. I haven't found anything that indicates whether this is directly related to testosterone levels. On the other hand, I do see things about testosterone levels that further suggest the stress/aggression correlation, for instance a popularization here.

In this article about aggression, we see

A disturbance in the body's chemistry or physiology - perhaps brought on by fatigue, hunger or lack of sleep - may alter a person's self-control. Medical conditions can sometimes play a role, eg a person taking medication for diabetes may develop low blood sugar (hypoglycaemia) if they miss a meal and can become aggressive as a result.
Well, that seems in line. Then there is the chicken and egg argument -- which comes first, the testosterone or the aggression? Discussed here, with related articles.

Also, this, and this somewhat dubious page :-) on wiki.


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Saturday, July 29, 2006

The prosecution narrative

To sell a case to a jury, the prosecution likes to have a clear narrative that explains just about everything. In reading the existing commentary from both MSM and blogdom, I imagine the story goes something as follows. Remember -- this isn't my opinion, but what a prosecutor might say.

Floyd left his sheltered upbringing and came to pro-cycling as a naif. The rebellious nature that led him to drink beer and Jack Daniels added slack to his moral anchor, and the cesspool of the sport may have carried him far away. He developed a Machiavellian personality, showing a surface of "Good Old Floyd" while darker things happened underneath. After stage 16, he was a desperate man facing the end of his career and his dream, and reached out for something that would feed a last attempt to get the glory he believed he deserved.

However, we need not look at his morals or intentions at all, only the facts. He had whatever it was in his body. A fact. Whether he took it knowingly is immaterial -- it was in him, and it fed his rage and helped him do what no-one believed was possible. This changed the outcome of the race, which is the worst sort of result, and it cannot be allowed to stand. We cannot allow our imagination of whether he could or would have won the stage without this chemical to affect our judgement. He had the exogenous material, which is not allowed, period. He must be held to our strict standard of accountability.
[update: echoed here]

My opinion: If it is exogenous, the game is over. If not, then the arguments of the endocrinologal defenses come into play, and there is more relevance to the character assasination in the first paragraph.


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What if exogenous?

For sake of argument, assume that the B sample (and maybe the A) are deemed to have foreign (exogenous) testosterone present. Two questions come up, "What happens", and "what happened."

What happens seems clear enough -- Floyd is nailed, loses the title and 4 years from the ProTour, and likely ending his career on the road. Is there anything he can do in the interim, like return to MTB?

"What happened" is intriquing, but probably doesn't affect the outcome. The possibilities as I can speculate include:

  1. Guilty, Guilty, Guilty.
  2. Contamination during analysis (consipiracy of stupidity)
  3. Contamination during transport (conspiracy of idiocy)
  4. Contamination during testing (conspiracy of dunces)
  5. Sabotage during or after testing (consipacy of evil theory)
  6. Other party doing something unknownst before or during the stage.
I am curious about the last scenario. In what way could Floyd have been doped by someone else without knowing? Is there a way to spike food or drink to produce these results?

If there is a way, who could have done it, and why? We're left with ostensible "friends", competitors, and third-parties as possibilities. It seems to me that all of those classes probably figured he was dead after stage 16, so it is hard to imagine competitors or third-parties bothering with a sabotage in anticipation of stage 17. That leaves us wondering if a "friend" might have tried to "help." This is a disturbing line of thought.

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Promised?

The transcript of the Larry King show with Landis has the following interesting exchanges over questions from viewers:

KING: We have another e-mail from Tim in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. "Can you release or authorize the release of the actual document showing the test results, not only after stage 17 but others from the Tour and from before and after the Tour?"

Floyd, could you authorize that?

LANDIS: I don't know if I can, because I don't have the other tests in my possession. I don't have the actual test in which I was accused of having an abnormal reading. The team has a copy. I could get it.

The other tests we're in the process of trying to acquire. Ordinarily, we don't receive any kind of correspondence from the testers unless there is a problem, so I have never in my life received any kind of results from the tests.

KING: But Dr. Kay, would you have any problem releasing anything?

KAY: No, I think we'd all like to see it
Followed a little later by
KING: Nicholas in Medford, New Jersey, an e-mail. "During past race day drug testing, has Floyd exhibited a pattern of normal but high testosterone levels? If not, what physiological explanation can account for the spike?" Doctor?

KAY: Well, Floyd has been tested countless times. I think we talked about maybe 20 this year alone and all you are given after those tests are the negative results. He is normal. He has been normal on all the tests so he's never received the documentation of the actual laboratory values. You're not entitled to them.

KING: Should you be?

KAY: So we've had those questions over and over. It would be nice to see them now but I think that's their position.

Based on this, I think we should expect the same kind of openness from the Floyd camp on all the test results, both historic and future, that we've come to see with his PowerTap numbers. If yes, we'll have more belief in whatever arguments are made, and if not, there will be more reason to be suspicious. Recall that one of the awkward things about the Hamilton defense was that it didn't appear he did any follow-up testing to attempt to prove his hypothoses. Floyd seems to be willing to do such things, and make the results public, which is a favorable demonstration of his intentions.

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Gatlin

We should note that US sprinter Justin Gatlin has just announced that he's been found positive for the same infraction as Floyd. Reports are mixed -- some say it was by the same lab, other say it was a lab in Los Angeles. The Gatlin test is reported to have used the spectrographic test. Larry Gatlin seems nearly as unlikely a suspect as Floyd -- he's been outpoken against doping, and faces a life ban for a second offense having been nailed on a technical violation earlier. Things may really be that rotten, the tests may be bad, or there may be funny business going on.

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Landis as of Saturday, July 29

What I currently understand of the Floyd Landis testing situation is that he's have an "adverse analytical finding" on his A sample for a T/E ratio exceeding the screening value of 4:1. Rumours suggest a reported ratio of 11:1, but this is, so far, andecotal. German TV is claiming to have received a suggestion that there was a finding that something was artificial rather than natural; if so that would either indicate doping of some sort or test contamination. However, this allegation has not been confirmed, and it is not clear if the spectroscopic test necessary to make the determination was done on the A sample.

One suspicion is that Floyd has a naturally low E-value, making swings in the ratio more likely with changes in the T value. Of the 'natural' defenses I've seen, I'd probably want to try the exercise-induced-elevation reported here.

Generally, hormonal responses to demanding high-volume resistance exercise include increases in the first 30 minutes of recovery in testosterone, hGH, and cortisol. IGF-1 occurs after growth hormones have caused hepatic secretions, and insulin increases in the presence of elevated blood glucose and dietary supplements. Catecholamines are associated with demanding strenuous exercise and appear to be part of a psychophysiological response to high task challenges.

And

Implications. Tesosterone, hGH, IGF-1, and cortisol are tested in drug programs. Their elevation is likely to be unacceptable in individuals who naturally have above average resting levels, respond excessively to very demanding resistance training sessions, and are tested very close to exercise completion. To avoid invalid test results, athletes who are required to provide a urine sample after a body-builder-type resistance program should do the following:

  • Stall as long as possible before providing the urine sample.
  • Refrain from participating in any demanding resistance program, particularly those aimed at increasing muscle bulk.
  • Resist post-exercise dietary (high protein/carbohydrate) supplements, despite that resistance not allowing the best training response.
Athletes undertaking a muscle building program are likely to be at greater risk for a false positive test after exercise than at any other time, solely because of natural events that do not fall under the exogenous-endogenous classification.
If ever there were someone who had done a lot of stressful exercise preceding sample production, it was the effort that Floyd had made in the last climb and in his anaerobic sprint to the line. The picture told the story - he was jacked up beyond anyone's memory.

If I were trying to do testing with him to prove innocence, I would quite possibly want to duplicate some of the things on the stage, with tests before and after.

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Thursday, May 05, 2005

Blog Tag, Five Things


There's this game being played called "blog tag", where somebody goes "tag, you're it", and you're supposed to
  1. Put up a post that identifies five things that people don't know about you.
  2. Tag five other blogs.
This game seems to have been invented by people who like multi-level marketing, "search engine optimization", Ponzi investment clubs, and Nigerian funds transfer. Do you like bargains? This is an incredible opportunity!

Most bloggers go along because they're nice, and like the attention.

TBV got tagged. I appreciate the thought, really. It's flattering, so here's the list:
  1. TBV isn't about me. I adopted the nom-de-blog for a reason -- not that I'm hiding -- it's not hard to track me down, but TBV is not just narcissism. Though there's a little.
  2. Expanding by powers of 5, it'll take all of 11 generations of tag to cover 48 million blogs, so there's not that much cachet in it, really.
  3. TBV has passive aggressive streak. And oppositional defiance. Maybe some problem with Authority too.
  4. TBV really needs to go ride his bike, so no #5.
If any of these folks want to play along, and notice this by telepathy, they can pretend we tagged them: Rant, PJ, Burt, SciFiTwin, Free Floyd

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