Saturday, February 02, 2002

Current Status Page

Here's a review of what we know and where things seem to be as of 1-Feb-2008, recent changes boldfaced.


Procedurally, as shown above, we've had the AAA (American Arbitration Association) hearing at step 6, (coverage here), the award rendered on Sep 20 is bing appealed at step 7.

We've completed steps 1 2, 3, and 4, and and 6, which is why they are darkened. Step 5 is now shaded away.
The powers awarded Oscar Peirero the Yellow Jersey in a ceremony the week of October 10th. Landis sat most of 2007 as the reigning champion.

Landis is now appealling to have the sanction revoked and the results re-instated. The hearing for this will be under CAS rules, and held in New York starting on March 19th. Unless that appeal succeeds, Pereiro will be the official TdF champion.

(Also KEY REFERENCES)

What I believe to be fact

  1. The B sample confirmed the findings of the A sample.
  2. On Sep 8, the Floyd official site announced they'd demand dismissal by the ADRBl.
  3. USADA Review Board has decided there is cause to proceed to hearing about a proposed sanction [22-Sep]
  4. The USADA hearing is scheduled for 14-May.
  5. Floyd, through Jacobs, has demanded a public hearing, to which he seems to have the right, and announced they are appealling the USADA decision. USADA appears to agree. [2-Oct]. Location will be Pepperdine University in Malibu, according to Landis. [12-Oct]
  6. We have confirmation of the reported11:1 T/E ratio and 3.99 ppm in the CIR test, as shown in the LDP.
  7. Jacobs got "Final Analytical Sample Reports" on August 31, around 370 pages worth. The simple AAF sheets are uninformative. See TBV post on LDP and AAF. [updated 8-Sep]
  8. Formal response demanding dismissal filed Monday, Sep 11, 5:15 PT. A description is provided on Landis website, finally released on 12-Oct.
  9. There are probably unreleased results from the samples on earlier or later stages, and their B samples probably still exist. This based on rules for sample storage in the "ISL".
  10. Landis was urine sampled after stages 11, 12, 15, 19 and 20 when holding yellow, and 17 for the win. He was a random selection with blood and uring after stage 9 and stage 19.
  11. USADA has asked Landis to do additional tests on the other stage B samples
  12. Landis refused, and USADA took it to the arbitrators.
  13. In their first Interlocutory ruling, the Panel allowed the tests, and said they'd probably admit the results.
  14. L'Equipe has published a leak that says "several" of those tests were IRMS positives, details unknown.
  15. Landis' experts were denied access to the lab during some testing, despite the Panel order that said they should have been allowed the normal B sample rights of observation.
  16. Landis had either 2 or 3 cortisone shots, one pre-tour. We don't have dates or dosage information. [16-Sep]
  17. There were 16 total AAFs at the tour, over 13 riders. One pair was Landis and Testosterone. We don't know if any of the other AAFs were for corticosteroids. [18-Sep]
  18. Because of the burden of proof, just having a theory won't cut it in the hearing or the appeal that will probably follow. See this TBV post.
  19. Floyd had expressed concern about whether the system really provides him opportunity to prove innocence, and he might be unwilling to go to the wall if it really is impossible. 11-Sep He now thinks he will get a fair shake, and is going to carry forward, according to this interview. Still in doubt going into hearing, particularly after two Panelists made a ruling without consulting the third.
  20. Floyd's hip operation complete, good results. Doing physical therapy.
  21. None of his Phonak TdF teammates has admitted or expressed any suspicions.
  22. Andy Rihs seems to have suggested maybe Floyd did something, but he, Andy, doesn't really know; later he has been publicly supported.
  23. John Lelangue has been offered a job with ASO [4-Oct], and has bad-mouthed Landis.
  24. Allen Lim is being seen again, was supportive post tour [8-Sep]
  25. Robbie Ventura had Floyd make an appearance with DZ at his new coaching center after it all broke, so he's not distancing himself.
  26. Axel Merckx to T-Mobile. [1-Oct]
  27. The LNDD documents contain corrections written over white-out, which is a significant violation of the ISL protocol that calls for changes to be lined through but readable, the new value, and an attributable date and set of initials to know who made the change. Verified by slides of documents given to USA Today [7-Oct-2006]
  28. Lab Pack, ADRB Filing and a presentation claiming "not positive" released on 12-oct, updated subsequently.
  29. IRMS/CIR was done on both S17 A and B samples.
  30. USADA wanted to go directly to CAS, but gave up on that even though Landis was agreeable. Maybe it was the insistence it be a public CAS hearing?
  31. There is a separate case before a French Agency, the AFLD, which has been stayed pending results of the USADA process, but no later than the end of June.
  32. The case is expensive to defend, and fundraising is being done through the Floyd Fairness Fund (FFF) do defray costs. One method is a series of Town Hall meetings with paid admission.
  33. Landis isn't doing any road racing this year, including defending the Tour.
  34. The hearing is over, we await the decision.
  35. The values were for tests on samples before and after stage 17 emerged at the hearing.
  36. LNDD's actual SOP positivity criteria are one metabolite > 3.0 + uncertainty = 3.8.
  37. Floyd's defense centered on science, particularly ISL rules for peak identification.
  38. The hearing "closed" on Sep 12, starting a 10 day clock for a ruling by Sep 22nd;
  39. Split decision 2-1 awarded a guilty decision to USADA on Sep 20th.
  40. Axel Merckx is now retired.
What we don't know
  1. Whether Landis did, in fact, dope.
  2. Is Tom Prail a "false positive" example for the CIR?
  3. Do Tom Prail and his case really exist? (We've found no confirmation yet).
  4. What are other labs SOP positivity criteria?
  5. Whether LNDD is really doing credible work:
  • How may IRMS/CIR tests have they done in the last 6 months/year/2 years?
  • How many positives, how many negatives?
  • Are the test protocols being followed correctly from a numeric perspective (did they zero the balance before doing the measurement or was it off by by a kilo with an error that compounded)?
  • Is the math correct?
  • What have their quarterly Proficiency Test Results been?
  • Do their PT results include IRMS positives?
  • When will we get access to all the exhibits?
PR sitrep
  1. The guesses about the causes have become the butt of jokes world-wide.
  2. Floyd has been lumped with Gatlin, Jones, Bonds, McGwire and Ruiz in many minds.
  3. Jones learned something from Floyd, and didn't say a word.
  4. The media and blogosphere are unsurprisingly short of nuance. It's hard to be in the "don't know" camp and talk with folks who see only in shades of black and white.
  5. Many lay and scientific people feel the IRMS/CIR result is unassailable.
  6. Jones B sample negative, she is clear. Media now questioning dope testing [8-Sep]
  7. French officials admit 12 other riders were positive at tour [8-Sep]
  8. Much wait-and-see on the quality of Landis's defense.
  9. Anti-Dopedom is so far silent about USADA decision.
  10. Documents leaked by Landis seem to have been used to test the utility of releasing the complete set. It must have worked well enough. [8-Oct]
  11. Forum appearances seem to be generating positive buzz.
  12. Old media skeptical of "wikipedia" defense.
  13. New media digs the release. This may be 'grassroots' development for later MSM coverage.
  14. As of December, the MSM may be starting to look into the case skeptically.
  15. AFLD received attention and respect before announcing their stay of proceedings.
  16. Lim is quietly helping the defense; worked at Landis Power Camp.
  17. Ventura is busy running his business; appeared at Witt Memorial, worked at Landis Power Camp.
  18. USADA is playing hardball.
  19. The FFF events have continued, and gotten press.
  20. The "Armstrong Deal" announcement pre-hearing got a lot of attention.
  21. The Call and The Post a huge problem, and has pretty much completely undercut Landis' "high ground" positioning.
  22. In early October 2007, Marion Jones confessed to usage of "the clear" which many have taken to be an example of the traitorous duplicity also engaged in by Landis, despite no connection between Landis and Jones at all.
Current Rumours and Speculation

These are from various sources, and some contradict each other.
  1. The ADRB couldn't get the LDP's translated, so they couldn't consider the merits and just punted the case along.
  2. Floyd is being pressured to "tell all", because Someone with an Agenda thinks he knows Something that will prove Something about Lance, per SD Union Tribune. [15-Sep]
  3. Floyd blood doped before Stage 17, used tainted blood, and blew it, discussed here. This seems unlikely because of volumes -- tainted doping blood isn't in enough volume to skew the CIR results that much.
  4. Despite the laughter, the Beer/Alcohol theory may account for both test results.
  5. Tampering could have been done by other teams, not just lab people. They had radios, and knew he was likely to make big time gains 2 hours before the stage ended; that is enough time to set something up.
  6. ASO is feeling Tour sponsor pressure to get a resolution, somehow.
Disproven Speculation
  1. Floyd is not talking while trying to cut a deal with USADA, also waiting for the LDPs. 8-Sep: deal negotiation disproved - he's demanding dismissal; 11-Sep, requested dismissal
  2. Tampering/Sabotage is still being considered as part of a defense. Off the table, now blaming lab botches, according to 11-Sep interview and summary of filing.
  3. Floyd won't release documents until after he has decided whether or not to cut a deal with USADA or defend. 11-Sep No deal. 22-Sep no dismissal, but still no documents. 7-Oct expect release soon; 12-Oct released.
  4. Floyd has all the documents, and is hiding them because they look bad. 7-Oct expect release soon; 12-Oct released.
Some Things I'm Wondering About
  1. Is there widespread production use of IRMS for CIR for other medical/food purposes?
  2. How many AAFs have had IRMS used for confirmation, by each lab?
  3. How many labs have IRMS? It looks like around 16.
  4. How many IRMS tests do they do?
  5. How many IRMS-reliant tests have been done as part of the quarterly WADA proficiency tests for various labs, and what have the results been?
  6. What would prove the IRMS and T/E were wrong to people who believed they were correct and infallible?
  7. What could prove tampering?
  8. How could you dis-prove the rumoured blood doping theory?
  9. Why don't the official statistics track AAFs and B sample counts through sanction?
  10. What indicates a contaminated sample?
  11. What are the positivity criteria for an IRMS/CIR at different labs?
If you've got questions or corrections, please drop a comment or send mail.

2 comments:

Thomas A. Fine said...

I think the notion that he blood doped with tainted blood has been pretty thoroughly debunked. The small quantity of blood added to the large existing base would make it almost impossible by itself for any synthetic T in the added blood to make a measurable.

Add to that the fact that testosterone leaves the bloodstream and is absorbed by other tissues almost immediately, and the odds of a scenario become truly remote. An athlete would have to donate their blood within a couple of minutes of administering T.

And on top of that, T is generally administered orally or by patch, which is very gradual, which means there's never a spike that would show up in the blood values in the first place.

tbv@trustbut.com said...

Tom, I wish it were so, but folks like the Anonymous Fortune Teller keep bringing it back to life, at least as a rumour.

Truth value aside, it is a widely circulated, believed, and active rumour.

In terms of policy, I guess I'm moving things to the dead heap only when there's no one who really thinks it anymore.

TBV