Tuesday, August 29, 2006

One month status review

[Superceded by CURRENT STATUS REVIEW]

On this one month anniversary of TBV, here's a review of what we know and where things are.

  1. The B sample confirmed the findings of the A sample. No surprise there.
  2. The USADA hearing isn't scheduled.
  3. Floyd, through Jacobs, has demanded an open hearing, to which he seems to have the right.
  4. We have only anecdotal confirmation of 11:1 T/E ratio and 3.99 ppm in the CIR test.
  5. Jacobs says he (still) hasn't received the test results. Long vacations in France.
  6. There are probably unreleased results from the samples on earlier or later stages, and their B samples probably still exist.
  7. Despite the laughter, the Beer/Alcohol theory may account for both test results.
  8. Because of the burden of proof, just having a theory won't cut it in the hearing or the appeal that will probably follow.
  9. Floyd has expressed concern about whether the system really provides him opportunity to prove innocence, and he might be unwilling to go to the wall if it really is impossible.
  10. Floyd has not yet had his hip operation. Unclear why not.
  11. Floyd has not been heard from since the day the news about David Witt broke. This could be coincidental.
  12. None of his Phonak TdF teammates has admitted or expressed any suspicions.
  13. Andy Rihs seems to have suggested maybe Floyd did something, but he, Andy, doesn't really know.
  14. John Lelangue has not been heard from. Looking for work?
  15. Allen Lim has been quiet in public. No idea what he's up to.
  16. Robbie Ventura had Floyd make an appearance with DZ at his new coaching center after it all broke, so he's not distancing himself.
What don't we know?
  1. What the actual lab values were, for either the A or B samples on either test.
  2. What the values were for tests on samples before and after stage 17.
  3. Whether B samples before and after stage 17 are really available for testing.
  4. Whether there has been a "longitudinal" study that Floyd volunteered to do, though one might be constructed from the records of previous tests if available.
  5. Is Tom Prail a "false positive" example for the CIR?
  6. Whether the lab is really doing credible work:
  • How may IRMS/CIR tests have they done in the last 6 months/year/2 years?
  • How many positives, how many negatives?
  • Are the test protocols being followed correctly from a numeric perspective (did they zero the balance before doing the measurement or was it off by by a kilo with an error that compounded)?
  • Is the math correct?
In terms of the PR situation,
  1. The conjectural hypotheses have become the butt of jokes world-wide.
  2. Floyd has been lumped with Gatlin, Jones, Bonds, McGwire and Ruiz in many minds.
  3. Jones learned something from Floyd, and didn't say a word.
  4. The media and blogosphere are unsurprisingly short of nuance. It's hard to be in the "don't know" camp and talk with folks who see only in shades of black and white.
Here are some KEY REFERENCES, also linked from "What's here."

If you've got questions or corrections, please drop a comment or send mail.

[updated 20:44]

2 comments:

Bill said...

It's hard to be in the "don't know" camp and talk with folks who see only in shades of black and white.

Amen to that. Even if you're trying to stay in the "don't know" camp, it's too easy to swing rapidly back and forth between black and white...

Anonymous said...

TBV
appreciate your patience on the topix.net posts and willingness to stay in the conversations. i thought i would address your lists, as did you concerning someones questions, but first about the shades of grey thing...me, i am the croation princess, look at one of my comments about black and white not really being the solution, it is probably going to be grey with a hint of yellow thrown in. that comment about nuance from my perspective, goes in both directions. there are people who already have the rope and others who think floyd can do no wrong...and then there are alot of us who just kind of want to know, but i think the email/computer removes the nuances within conversations that reveal that ambiguity. just a thought.
5. about the long vacations...you know, the french (and the rest of europe for that matter!) are a little more healthy in regards to balance between work and play. they dissapear mid july, returning in august every year.
7. the beer alcohol comment...jack happens to be my choice of drink, with a coke back...i wonder what floyds confession of his use of jack has done for sales!
9. if floyd cops out going to the wall because he feels the process is unfair or whatever, well. that does not speak well for his character. enough said.
11-15. the silence of people...if they spoke we would be all over them for leaks and unfounded statements and such. i am glad they are all quiet.
16...but lance has backed off, and when it came up on a ride in iowa, he cut the news media off. though this would be typical lance, because it is all about lance. (and sometimes that can be a good thing!)
look forward to reading more of your blogging